Consumer Confidence Index Trends Influence Exports and Imports in Indonesia

Following the Lebaran holiday, consumer and industrial needs in Indonesia experienced significant changes, subsequently impacting consumer demand. How does this affect exports and imports?

An indicator reflecting consumer optimism toward current economic conditions and future expectations is calculated based on a monthly survey conducted by Bank Indonesia. 

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Based on the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) from Bank Indonesia's February 2025 report, the optimism level stood at 126.4, lower than the previous month's 127.2.

Meanwhile, consumer perception of economic conditions, as reflected by the Economic Condition Index (ECI), reached 114.2, higher than January 2025's 113.5.

This increased perception stemmed from the Durable Goods Index and the Current Income Index, which rose by 3.4 points and 0.1 points respectively, reaching 113.7 and 122.7 in February 2025.

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Job availability decreased by 1.5 points to 106.2. Based on the Consumer Expectation Index (CEI), the outlook for the next six months is expected to remain strong. In February 2025, it stood at 138.7, although lower than the previous month. 

This success is attributed to optimistic expectations regarding income, job availability, and business activity, recorded at 143.3, 134.2, and 138.6 respectively.

The average proportion of consumer income allocated to consumption was 74.7%, higher than the previous month's 73.6%.

Conditions across various regions of Indonesia are reflected in the regional Confidence Index.

How does the Consumer Confidence Index affect exports and imports?

Increased consumer purchasing power boosts consumer confidence in spending, impacting demand for imported products such as electronics, fashion, vehicles, and more, prompting producers to meet market demand.

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Regarding exports, the impact lies in increased competitiveness of export products. Producers may prioritize domestic sales, while trading partners will see increased demand for export goods. In conclusion, the export-import industry and CCI trends mutually influence each other in various aspects. Therefore, regular monitoring of the CCI can serve as a crucial indicator for businesses in the logistics sector.

Source:

https://www.bi.go.id/id/publikasi/laporan/Documents/Laporan-Survei-Konsumen-Januari-2025.pdf